Business Optimization

Corona Virus: Business Impact Timeline

Corona virus or Covid-19 has disrupted the entire world economy, It is impacting every industry. Yet nobody is in position to clearly predict the overall impact of Covid-19 on the world, would it trigger an economic recession or worst a depression. There are many question, which we cannot answer like, what would be impact in terms of dollars, how many trillions, how many people will loose their job, Will it change the way we work, will the work from home a new normal. How all this will unfold, there is no better way to understand it than to record events as they happen, We will record as we get the news, we biased and more vigilant here about 2 Countries, India and USA, India because we are India based and we have more information source and USA because its an economic super power and impact on USA economy affect world economy than any other Country

16 April 2020
Detected Cases- World: 2.08 Million. USA: 644,000 India: 12,370
Death- World: 134,616 USA: 28,529 India: 422
3 Most impacted Countries are USA, Spain, Italy. France is the forth most impacted country with around 1400 deaths yesterday, almost doubled from a day before yesterday

– [FT] USA has stopped funding to WHO on pretext of WHO’s not handling Corona virus properly
– [ET] India will lift partial restrictions on Manufacturing, construction
– [ET] India started using Plasma treatment
– [ET] Gove is allowing IT and ITes companies to with around half of the staff
– [ET] India, fin-tech lenders puts new loans on hold as covid-19 hit collection
– [ET] Chinese funds are targeting distressed Indian assets, they threatened that if the restrictions are imposed, they exit the market completely
– World oil demand is forecasted to be lowest

14 April 2020

Detected Cases- World: 1.9 Million. USA: 560,000 India: 10,454
Death- World: 119,692 USA: 23,640 India: 358
3 Most impacted Countries are USA, Spain, Italy. Italy now see some downward turn in number of cases detected and number of deaths

– Swiggy, a food delivery company, sees the opportunity and started grocery delivery in 125 cities across India
– Today is last day of 21 days lockdown, Prime minister of India, today will reveal if the lockdown will continue
– India customers shopping habits see a change, now they buy more on weekdays rather than on weekends
– Public health foundation of India thinks, the outbreak peak will reach at the end of April
– Centre Govt to put 1 Lakh crore in rural India through crop procurement and through cash transfer
– Nifty-50 companies could see a profit dip of 21% and 8% dip in revenue for 4th Quarter
– India companies with overseas debt, fear of hostile takeover, seeks Force Majeure protection against obligations
– Apparel, eateries may take one year to recover
– Due to lockdown of Ports and restriction of interstate movement impacted drug supply badly

*all data is from different sites and news papers, sources can be revealed on request

13 April 2020

Detected Cases- World: 1.6 Million. USA: 560,000 India: 9,200
Death- World: 114,000 USA: 22,000 India: 331
3 Most impacted Countries are USA, Spain, Italy. Italy now see some downward turn in number of cases detected and number of deaths

– India share market sees rally, there no clear reason for that, could be FII’s DII’s and HNI’s pushing funds to buy discounted equity
– car companies delayed all launches
– industries proposed to use special trains/buses to bring in workers from relief camps and country side to start factories
– 21 days lockdown is expected to be extended, new lockdown exemption to allow all type of cargo movement across country, man industries will be allowed to open
– Banks are expecting to large number of defaults from Cab drivers, ₹30,000 Crore of borrowing from the Cabbies
– World Bank revised India GDP forecast to 1.5-2.5%, which worst in 40 years (similar for all South east Asian nations)
– India Per capita Per month expense, 2,244 Rural and 4,232 Urban, of 52%(Rural) and 42%(urban) spent on food
– In India, 858 million people live in Rural and 442 million people live in Urban
– To feed 1.3 billion people, Govt needs 1.3 Lakh crore pr month to feed, when estimated that 80% of Rural and 40% of Urban need support
– Rice and edible oil prices begin to increase as scarcity of labour and packaging material is there, Demand from Community Kitchen’s increases
– Dall mills are running at 25-30% capacity
– British PM has been released from the hospital

31st March 2020

  • Now this is very clear that this is not a epidemic but pandemic, many countries started seeing covid-19 cases
  • Globalization has truly make its impact felt, once a Flu emerged in Wuhan, China, spread throughout the world very fast in matter of several weeks and now most of the world has been in impact
  • India: companies started invoking “Force Majeure” or “Act of God” and defaulted on the payments
  • India: State Govt electric boards sent letter to power companies that they cannot make the payment
    • Cinema halls invoke the ‘Act of God’ clause in their agreement and sending letter to malls and other landlords to pardon them for few months and give them relief from paying rent
    • Gas suppliers send letter to gas producers
  • It seems businesses see ‘Force Majeure’ clause a way to reduce the impact and get some relief but this will have chain effect, when business don’t get payments from customer, they will have no choice but to invoke this clause on their commitments and also reduce expenses, like salaries. So we can expect a lot job reductions.
  • India: there is 21 days lockdown from 25th March to 14 of April
    • all retail shops are closed but medical shops and grocery store
    • all online deliveries are stopped but essential service
    • esentials services are like vegitables, groceries, medicals supplies
    • state boarders are sealed (only trucks with essential supplies are allowed)
    • this created cause on the boarders as there is guideline and definite way to decide who can cross the boarder
    • People cannot go out other than purchasing the essential services
    • All educational institutions are closed down
    • ATMs, petrol pump, grocery shops, banks and related manufacturing are allowed to work
    • on lockdown people started hoarding the essential supplies amid fear of shortage of supplies
    • on lockdown of the most of businesses, shops and manufecturing, work
    • about 139 million country side workers who work in cities/urban, started migrating to their native places
    • as of all transport facilities are closed down, migrant worker even started walking to their places, which in some cases as long as 400 KM
    • state governments and central government took steps and provided special tranport service to take them home and feed them on the way
    • throughout India, around 22k relief camps are setup for stranded migrant workers
  • industries asking government in help paying wages and give tax relief and prepare relief package for the respective industry.

Coworking Space Industry:

  • To be written…

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